Indiana saw its largest population increase in over 15 years due to immigration, but it’s not likely to last long.
More than 44,000 new residents moved to the state, according to new numbers from the Indiana Business Research Center at Indiana University’s Kelley School of Business. That’s the largest increase in population growth in a year since 2008. The state’s population now sits at 6.92 million people.
Matt Kinghorn, senior demographer at the Indiana Business Research Center, said the drivers for population growth in 2008 versus 2024 vary.
“Back in 2008, natural increase, or the difference between the number of births, the number of deaths, accounted for more than three quarters of the state's population growth,” he said. “But fast forward to 2024, and immigration, or net international migration, accounted for nearly three quarters of our growth.”
Kinghorn said 73 out of 92 Indiana counties’ population increased, the largest number of counties to grow since 1997. Suburban counties and metropolitan areas are primarily drivers of population growth. Hamilton, Boone and Hancock counties saw the largest population growth in 2024. Rural counties have also seen some growth, which is unusual.
“A lot of counties face a natural decline in the population, meaning deaths outnumber births,” he said, “and so how sustainable that will be, time will tell. I think it's definitely an uphill climb for a lot of our communities.”
Over the last 15 years, Kinghorn said population growth has slowed due to an aging population and declining birth rates. In 2023, Monroe County recorded 992 births.
“That's the first time that the county’s had fewer than 1,000 births since 1946 and at that time, the county population was about a third of what it is today,” he said. “Monroe County has had about a 25 percent decline in the number of births just over the last seven or eight years. And that is the largest, or the steepest decline, among all Indiana counties.”
There were 79,000 births in Indiana in 2023, the third-lowest number since 1946; 1987 and 2020 reported fewer births. Fertility rates across the country have declined 21 percent since 2007.
“Between 2008-2009 period to today, Indiana has seen a 15 percent slide in our fertility rate over that period, which is pretty dramatic,” he said. “All states have had at least a double-digit decline over this period.”
Higher mortality rates also contribute to weakening population growth.
“We're seeing higher mortality rates, especially among younger adults or working age adults,” he said. “And a lot of this is driven by the opioid epidemic.”
Kinghorn predicts population growth will slow due to declining birth rates. He also thinks President Donald Trump’s deportation efforts could discourage immigration, a key source of population growth.
“For all of our lifetimes, the dominant source of population growth has been what's called natural increase, or the difference between numbers of births and number of deaths,” he said. “But, as that declines and declines and declines, our projections show that Indiana, sometime in the late 2030s, deaths will outnumber births statewide, and so that points to much slower population growth going forward.”
Kinghorn said a smaller population could make labor markets tight.
“As our population ages, and as the size of our young adult population likely declines, that means it's going to be difficult in terms of finding labor force,” he said. “At the same time, the ranks of our seniors are going to grow and grow and grow. And so, how do we support our growing senior population? And at the same time, what does it mean for school corporations or whatnot if they're going to see be seeing enrollment declines?”
