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Why do political polls sometimes show wildly different results?

By Brandon Smith

Posted September 20, 2024

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Pollsters are increasingly divided on how to best poll voters, including whether to use online or telephone polls and the balance of landlines versus cell phones. (Lauren Chapman / IPB News)

Two recently released political polls show wildly different results for Indiana’s statewide campaigns — from Democrats nearly tied in races for governor and attorney general, to Republicans with huge leads.

So, why are there such discrepancies in public polling?

Chad Kinsella, Ball State University associate professor of political science, said political polls can be entertaining and interesting. But he said they represent just a “test of a moment in time.”

“Kind of like sticking your finger in the air and you get a sense of where things are in a moment,” Kinsella said.

Kinsella said polling is getting more difficult. Pollsters are increasingly divided on how to best poll voters, including whether to use online or telephone polls and the balance of landlines versus cell phones.

There’s also the challenge of getting people to respond, choosing how many people will yield a good result, and what demographics to weigh in the sample.

“Everybody’s kind of got their secret sauce, if you will,” Kinsella said. “And sometimes the secret sauces work and sometimes they don’t.”

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Kinsella said Indiana also isn’t polled very often, in large part because its political results haven’t changed in a while.

The recent poll that showed Democrats in tight races was from a polling firm contracted by Democratic attorney general candidate Destiny Wells.

Kinsella said releasing those results was a smart campaign move.

“Democrats in this state need something to get excited about,” Kinsella said. “Even if it turns out not to be correct, to try to build some momentum — because there hasn’t been any momentum for quite some time.”

Democrats haven’t won a statewide race in Indiana in more than a decade.

Brandon is our Statehouse bureau chief. Contact him at bsmith@ipbs.org or follow him on Twitter at @brandonjsmith5.