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Most people expect food prices to rise in coming year

By Joanie Dugan

Posted March 15, 2024

Consumers report spending around $195 each week on food. (Squirrel_photos)

A new report from the Center for Food Demand Analysis and Sustainability at Purdue says most consumers expect food costs to rise in the next year.

The February Consumer Food Insights report says 64 percent of 1,200 Americans surveyed predict rising food prices.

“Rising food prices have been pretty consistent the past couple of years and past few months, but we are seeing inflation starting to cool,” said Elijah Bryant, a survey research analyst and co-author of the report. “People's optimism might be a little bit low. So, I would expect we'd still see people predicting food prices to continue to rise since that inflation level is above zero.”

In 2022, food inflation rose to 9.9 percent. According to the latest Consumer Price Index report from the U.S. Bureau of Labo r Statistics, food inflation is at 2.2 percent.

“Generally, if inflation outpaces wage growth, purchasing power decreases and consumers’ ability to maybe buy the same basket of goods they usually would goes down,” Bryant said.

Although food inflation is going down overall, the cost of eating out is going up. The food away from home (FAFH) inflation rate is 5.1 percent.

“The frequency that people are eating out has been trending slightly downward. Even though total spending on things like food restaurants has gone up slightly, but that's in part because of high levels of inflation for food away from home,” Bryant said. “So, people might be mitigating the risk of higher food prices by saving more, eating out less and eating more meals at home.”

Seventy-one percent of Republicans expect higher food costs, compared to 54 percent of Democrats.

Consumers report spending around $127 per week on groceries and $68 eating outside the house, totaling $195 per week. Total food spending is up 2 percent from January.

The survey also asked respondents to rank “food values”: taste, affordability, nutrition, availability, environmental impact, and social responsibility. Taste, affordability, and nutrition are the highest valued; environmental impact and social responsibility ranked the lowest.

The people who expect higher food prices value affordability more than those who didn’t. Affordability and taste were rated twice as important as environmental impact and social responsibility.

“It’s not to say that they don’t value those things,” Bryant said. “When they’re making the purchasing decision in relation to things like taste and affordability, they just don’t weigh into their decision quite as much.”

The report states that this “points to the importance of the availability of healthy foods that are also affordable and tasty in fostering good nutrition in the U.S.”

Food insecurity is around 12.4 percent, down from 14 percent in 2023.

“Food insecurity essentially measures accessibility and affordability of quality food,” Bryant said. “We use the six item short form of food insecurity created by the USDA. We have six questions that assess the consumer or the household’s ability to provide access to quality food and the ability to afford food, and whether or not they had to skip meals because there wasn’t enough money for food.”

Consumers remain consistent, as most of them predicted higher food prices in every monthly report.