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Indiana tax collections stall again ahead of new revenue forecast

By Brandon Smith

Posted December 18, 2023

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Sen. Travis Holdman (R-Markle) said the first quarter of 2024 will be the "telltale sign" for where the economy is headed. (Brandon Smith/IPB News)

After 29 consecutive months of state revenues that outperformed budget expectations, Indiana collections have now fallen short two months in a row.

Two months of subpar revenue collections have left Indiana $116 million short of where the state budget expected it to be, though that’s less than 2 percent off the mark and there are seven months to go in the fiscal year.

Sen. Travis Holdman (R-Markle) said revenue collections should prompt some caution.

“I think we just need to be cautious and holding back on state agency spending until we get to that first quarter of 2024,” Holdman said. “I think that’ll be the telltale sign of where the economy is going to land.”

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Sales taxes are, perhaps, the big worry. Sales tax collections have been below expectations for eight consecutive months.

State fiscal analysts explain away some of that by noting that the state this year began shifting gasoline sales tax dollars out of the General Fund, contributing to the lower-than-expected figures on the revenue sheet.

Brandon is our Statehouse bureau chief. Contact him at bsmith@ipbs.org or follow him on Twitter at @brandonjsmith5.