By 2040, one out of five Hoosiers will be a senior.
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Indiana’s elderly population is growing significantly, according to population projections from the Indiana Business Research Center at the Indiana University Kelley School of Business.
The projections rely on recent birth and death data and migration estimates.
Indiana saw a 40 percent increase in those age 65 and older between 2010 and 2023.
The IBRC projects the elderly population will grow by 73 percent between 2020 and 2040. Between 2020 and 2060, it will grow by almost 90 percent.
Blue columns are actual data. Red columns are projections. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Indiana Business Research Center
Meanwhile, the number of people younger than 20 is falling.
“At the same time as we're seeing kind of the size of our population over the age of 65 grow, we're seeing the size of our population under the age of 20 decline,” said Matt Kinghorn, a senior demographer. “And so that's really driving a dramatic aging of our population. And I think we'll have serious implications for our economy, for our labor force moving forward.”
Kinghorn said lower fertility rates and drug overdose deaths contribute to the declining younger population. The CDC reported earlier this year that Indiana saw fewer overdose deaths between 2022 and 2023.
Still, mortality rates for those ages 25 to 54 have been steadily increasing for the past two decades. That rate jumped 24 percent from 1998 to 2019. In 2023, it was 6 percent higher than in 2019.
1970 to 2019 are three-year moving averages. Rates from 2020 to 2023 are annual values. 2023 rates are provisional. Source: National Center for Health Statistics
“We’re already facing really tight labor markets, and we expect that labor force growth in the state to slow dramatically as the population ages,” Kinghorn said. “And so that could also lead us to slower economic growth.”
Metropolitan counties will see the strongest growth. All 92 of Indiana’s counties can expect elderly population growth from 2020 to 2035. But only 21 counties will continue to see gains from 2035 to 2050.
Metropolitan areas will also have the most growth in the working age population.
Some parts of the state could be more affected than others. Fast-growing metros are likely to be able to support growing demand for elderly people seeking services.
“Some of these more rural or mid-sized parts of the state, it's going to be more difficult for them to access services and health care as we move forward,” Kinghorn said.
He said that focusing on attracting and retaining young people in the state will be key in addressing labor shortages.
“That’s going to be a big, big emphasis, I think, moving forward is, how do we have more productive workers?” Kinghorn said. “How do we improve our human capital, our education for workers, make sure that workers are geared for the economy of the future?”
This growth is expected to slow down between 2030 and 2050. But then it’s expected to rebound as millennials age. By 2040, one out of five Hoosiers will be a senior.
In Monroe County, the elderly population is expected to increase by nearly 48 percent from 2020 to 2050.
Indiana's total population is projected to grow by 5.4 percent between 2020 and 2050.
