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Hoosiers might spend more on the holidays this year

By Joanie Dugan

Posted November 23, 2023

Presents underneath the Christmas tree (Wikimedia Commons/Alhill42)

Hoosiers can expect to spend a little more money this year for the holidays. The National Retail Federation predicts holiday spending to increase by 3-to-4 percent this year – totaling to between $957.3 billion and $966.6 billion.

But despite the predictions of record-breaking spending and a strong state economy, consumers don’t feel like their money is going very far.

According to the US Index of Consumer Sentiment, which measures how optimistic consumers feel about the economy, consumer sentiment fell by 5 percent this month. That means even though the economy is doing well, consumers don’t feel confident in their financial power.

Phillip Powell is the executive director for the Indiana Business Research Center at the Indiana University Kelley School of Business. He says that even though the state economy is strong, Hoosiers still feel the impact of the record high inflation rate last year. It peaked at 9.1 percent in June 2022. According to the October 2023 Consumer Price Index, the annual inflation rate has slowed to 3.2 percent.

“Inflation has a long memory," Powell said. "So people still feel like prices are going up, even though inflation has decelerated.”

Powell says that inflation, interest rates and war are the things people consider when they think about the economy. Interest rates are still high, which makes people less likely to use credit. But Powell says the wars in Gaza and Ukraine are not heavily impacting our economy.

“The economy grew nationally at 4.9 percent last quarter," Powell said. "In the state, our economy is growing, manufacturing is coming back through reshoring. Unemployment in the state is about 4 percent. So we’re much more resilient than it feels, which is good news for 2024 as we go into the new year."

Still, Hoosiers aren’t confident in the economy – or their spending power. Retail sales fell 0.1 percent in October according to the Commerce Department's Census Bureau after months of growth.

But even though consumer confidence is low, it’s not certain if holiday spending will be affected. Powell said there’s some fear this holiday season may be slower than last year’s, but people still like to treat themselves.

Chart displaying historical holiday sales and 2023 forecast

The National Retail Federation predicts consumers will spend nearly $900 to celebrate the winter holidays on gifts, decor, food and other seasonal items. It also says most consumers plan to finish shopping in December, so there’s still time to see how retail sales will swing at the end of this year.

“When it gets really, really bad, consumers do pull back,” Powell said. “And there is some fear that that will happen this holiday season…last year's holiday season was a good one. It was because they had saved a lot of money during the pandemic they were spending down their savings. A lot of that savings has been spent down now. So there's less extra money around. Plus if you're throwing it on your credit card, it's more expensive from a borrowing perspective. So consumers aren't afraid to spend.”

Even with less money around, though, Powell said things are looking up.

“One point I'm making is that, at least in business, it's time to get back to normal,” he said. “So going forward, I would hope that households have every reason to embrace a normalcy that we have not experienced since 2019.”