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Gas prices continue to fall

By Joanie Dugan

Posted November 14, 2024

According to AAA, Monroe County’s gas prices are higher than average compared to other counties. (Sean Hogan, WTIU/WFIU News)

Gas prices in Indiana are continuing to decline, falling to just under $3 per gallon last week.

According to AAA, the state average for a gallon of gas is about $3.07 – just a cent below the national average, and 27 cents less than it was this time last year.

In 2020 after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, it was under $2. Gas prices hit a high in 2022 in Indiana at about $5.24 per gallon.

Since then, gas prices have fallen.

“We typically see gas prices this time of year are about 10 to 15 percent less than they are in the middle of summer,” said Kyle Anderson, an economist at the Indiana University Kelley School of Business in Indianapolis. “Part of that's due to lower demand, fewer people traveling this time of year, and also the cost of production of gas is a little bit lower right now.”

As of Nov. 14, the average cost per gallon of gas in Monroe County is about $3.14. Anderson said gas prices depend on the ease of distribution and local competition.

According to AAA, Monroe County’s gas prices are higher than average compared to other counties. Gas in Marion County, for example, is about $3.11 on average.

“It's easier to get gas to cities on interstates and get that distribution,” Anderson said. “It also often just comes down to local competition. How many gas stations are there? Are people willing to sort of shop around? So if Indianapolis has more competition in the market, it makes sense the prices are going to be a little bit lower.”

Anderson said the price of gas is hard to predict. It depends on several factors, including seasonal components, global markets, and geopolitical turmoil.

“Global markets definitely have an impact,” Anderson said. “Saudi Arabia, the Middle East, Eastern Europe, all of these have an impact on energy prices, and certainly geopolitical turmoil will tend to lead to higher prices, so we could see some disruptions and some higher prices due to that. But it's really uncertain right now.”

Anderson added the increasing popularity of electric vehicles and hybrids also contributes to lower gas prices.

“One reason that we're seeing lower gas prices now is on the demand side, and it's because more people are buying hybrids and EVs,” Anderson said. “So some of the demand is being reduced by high fuel efficiency vehicles…if everyone were still driving pickup trucks and minivans and SUVs that were getting limited miles to the gallon, then we would see prices much higher than they are right now.”

Holiday travel typically leads to higher gas prices due to increased demand. But Anderson said the increase should not be large.

“You'll see probably a modest uptick in prices, all else being equal,” Anderson said. “But it's not something that consumers should be too worried about. You know, it might be five or 10 cents a gallon, nothing that's going to break the bank.”

Typically, gas prices fall after the holidays, and rise again in the summer.

A recent forecast from the Kelley School of Business said the economy is strong. But gas prices also depend on demand, and broader economic conditions.

Anderson said that’s why it’s not likely for gas prices to naturally fall to pandemic levels again.

“The only way that would happen is through a massive recession or a pandemic again,” Anderson said. “Part of the reason gas prices went up is that the economy is quite strong right now… It's not just about production, it's about the economic activity that goes on. So for gas prices to fall further, honestly, it would probably take an economic contraction. So as an economist, I don't want to see gas prices fall much further. It's probably an indication of problems in the economy.”