Former Senator Evan Bayh spoke on the developing situation in Ukraine in a virtual event on Tuesday evening, hosted by the O’Neil School of Public and Environmental Affairs (SPEA).
Bayh spoke on what to expect next from the war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s leadership during this time, and the effect on the global economy. Bayh described what the United States is doing in the long-term to prevent Russian hostility.
“About 12,000 more [Americans] have been sent to Europe,” Bayh said. “In the Baltic countries, in Poland and Romania, there to serve as a bulwark against future Russian aggression.”
Bayh noted that the democracies of the world should also be questioning where China stands on Russian aggression in Ukraine, and whether this is a test to China on how to engage with Taiwan. Bayh believes that China is attempting to drive a wedge between the United States and Western European nations, who serve as their largest trading market.
“We need to make crystal clear to the Western Europeans that when they buy things from the Chinese, when they have good relations with the Chinese, they are supporting a regime that has a very close alliance with Vladimir Putin [and] with Russia,” Bayh said.
Bayh noted that through the war in Ukraine Putin has created a global environment that is deeply hostile to Russia, all while crippling Russia's own economy. Recent reports reveal that Russia’s economy will contract 10 to 15 percent within the next year, Bayh said.
“[This] is not the hallmark of a great nation. [Putin] has done irreparable damage to his own country in this misadventure that he lost,” Bayh continued.
Bayh said that while it will cost hundreds of billions of dollars to rebuild a devastated Ukraine, they will be able to rebuild, hopefully once the war ends. Bayh commended the bravery and resilience of the Ukrainian people, and said he is optimistic the country will ultimately win the war started by Russia.
Putin's forces have shifted away from Kyiv
When President Vladimir Putin launched his war on Feb. 24 after months of buildup on Ukraine’s borders, he sent hundreds of helicopter-borne commandos — the best of the best of Russia’s “spetsnaz” special forces soldiers — to assault and seize a lightly defended airfield on Kyiv’s doorstep.
Other Russian forces struck elsewhere across Ukraine, including toward the eastern city of Kharkiv as well as in the contested Donbas region and along the Black Sea coast. But as the seat of national power, Kyiv was the main prize. Thus the thrust by elite airborne forces in the war’s opening hours.
But Putin failed to achieve his goal of quickly crushing Ukraine’s outgunned and outnumbered army. The Russians were ill-prepared for Ukrainian resistance, proved incapable of adjusting to setbacks, failed to effectively combine air and land operations, misjudged Ukraine’s ability to defend its skies, and bungled basic military functions like planning and executing the movement of supplies.
For now at least, Putin’s forces have shifted away from Kyiv, to eastern Ukraine. Ultimately, the Russian leader may achieve some of his objectives. Yet his failure to seize Kyiv will be long remembered — for how it defied prewar expectations and exposed surprising weaknesses in a military thought to be one of the strongest in the world.
