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Food price inflation remains high for the holiday season

food inflation

Water shortages, the avian flu, labor supply issues and the war in Ukraine have all contributed to 2022’s food price inflation. (Dreamstime.com)

Inflation has been at the forefront of national issues since the start of 2022. While economic factors point to a slight relief in unprecedented inflation levels, food prices remain significantly higher than previous years.

Read more: As inflation soars, economist remains optimistic

Hoosiers can expect to see grocery prices average about 12 percent higher than last holiday season, said agricultural economist Shellye Suttles.

“If we think about just looking at Thanksgiving, that is a very good indication that food price increases will be sustained through December,” she said.

Shuttles said food prices are high for several reasons, including water shortages, the avian flu epidemic and labor supply issues.

However, one issue has remained a prominent reason for inflation in the global market: the ongoing war in Ukraine.

“Both Russia and Ukraine are very big players in the global fertilizer and wheat markets,” Suttles said. “When we think about the price of wheat in the global market, that is going to ultimately impact the US because we grow wheat.”

Read more: Survey: Hoosiers can expect to pay about 14 percent more for Thanksgiving this year

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published a list of foods with increased prices compared to last year. The most prominent one is eggs at a 49 percent higher price.

“According to the CDC, I think 50 million birds have been cold or have passed away and died from the avian flu,” Suttles said. “So that is really impacting egg and poultry prices.”

Building a traditional Christmas meal may cost more than usual, Suttles said.

“If you were buying that kind of classic Norman Rockwell Americana meal that is heavy meat-based,” she said, “there are some crises with poultry, beef and… most likely with swine coming up around the corner, for pork prices.”

Regional food banks are seeing a dramatic increase in people needing emergency food services, said Hoosier Hills Food Bank CEO Julio Alonso.

Hoosier Hills distributes food to partner pantries and shelters, while also sending food directly to clients.

“They've all been asking for more food leading up to the Christmas holidays,” Alonso said. “One of our agency's community kitchens does provide meals on Christmas, and they're expecting higher numbers this year.”

While inflation may be easing, it is likely to remain high for many months, Shuttles said.

“Especially if things don't particularly change with regards to these issues we're seeing… if nothing would have changed about the macroeconomic issues that are causing the inflation,” she said. “So we would imagine that inflation would remain.”

If your household is struggling to make ends meet this holiday season, many resources such as Hoosier Hills exist in Indiana. Families struggling can call 211 or visit Indy’s Hunger Networks Community Compass app to find hot meal sites and food pantries.

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