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Farmers uncertain over ag trade policies

By Clayton Baumgarth

Posted April 3, 2025

The Ag Economy Barometer year-over-year. (Courtesy of Purdue Ag Communications.)

Farmers’ concerns over tariffs and ag trade weighed down their sentiments on the future of the industry, according to Purdue’s Ag Economy Barometer survey.

James Mintert, a professor of Agricultural Economics at Purdue, said farmers are still optimistic following the November election, but that may change in the coming months.

“Farmers retained a good bit of the optimism they had or gained following the election, and what took place this month was farmers became less confident about the future,” he said.

One of the key questions the survey asked of farmers was whether exports were expected to increase or decrease in the future. In 2019, Mintert estimates that less than 10 percent of respondents expected exports to decrease in the next five years.

“This month, we got the highest percentage we've ever gotten saying they actually think exports could decrease over the next five years,” he said. “This month, that was 30 percent saying they expect to see exports decrease.”

Last year, the barometer showed that interest rates were the top concern for farmers. Trade policies are now the highest concern, with 43 percent of respondents choosing it over interest rates.

Further, 57 percent said tariffs will have a negative impact on the economy.

“The U.S. has become a meat export powerhouse, and this is going to hurt those exports as well,” he said. “So across the board, it's negative for many sectors of the US economy, and I think agriculture is definitely in that category.”

Mintert also highlighted the cost to import goods such as equipment, fertilizer, and potash will most likely increase, meaning farmers will spend more to make less overall.

The survey also asked if farmers expect some sort of compensation from the government to backstop the ag economy. Two-thirds of those asked say a government program will be put in place to help mitigate those losses.