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Farmers 'cautiously optimistic' on ag economy

By Clayton Baumgarth

Posted August 2, 2023

The Ag Economy Barometer year-to-date. (Courtesy of Purdue Agricultural Communications)

Farmer sentiment improved slightly in July despite recent crop price volatility and concerns about rising interest rates. 

According to the Ag Economy Barometer, a monthly telephone survey that gathers information from 400 U.S. agricultural producers, farmers said they were more “cautiously optimistic” about the ag economy than in previous months. 

Michael Langemeier, a professor of agriculture economics at Purdue, said the results are surprising given the challenges currently faced by producers. 

“When you look at crop-net returns and net farm income in ‘23 compared to ‘22, it looks like returns are going to be quite a bit lower,” he said. “Despite that fact, people are still relatively optimistic given the financial conditions they're likely facing here in ‘23 and ‘24.” 

Interestingly, the number one factor driving sentiment was high input costs. 

“It would be interesting to see what happens to that response for the next few months, because fertilizer prices are down quite a bit from what they were a year ago,” Langemeier said. 

The second factor was rising interest rates. Farmers feel that interest rates will have to be raised higher than expected to stem inflation. 

“Two-thirds of the respondents said that they expected the prime interest rate to increase,” he said. “A full third (of those respondents) thought they were going to increase more than 1 percent. That's a little higher than what the Federal Reserve has been talking about.” 

Price volatility, driven by many factors including recent heat waves and the expiration of the Black Sea Grain Deal, was named the third most crucial factor driving sentiment. 

Read more: Farmers worried about lowering crop prices

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