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Farmer sentiment on 2022 income rebounds at year end

By Clayton Baumgarth

Posted January 4, 2023

Prices for diesel and fertilizer remain high, but farmers are more optimistic about the year ahead. (Courtesy of the USDA)

Following a two-month decline and a year of weak sentiment, the Ag Economy Barometer from Purdue University and CME Group closed out the year on a more positive note. Farmers appear more optimistic in both their current situation and future expectations.

The barometer is a monthly telephone survey that gathers information from 400 U.S. agricultural producers.

Michael Langemeier, a professor of agricultural economics at Purdue, said the increase came as a bit of a surprise.

“It certainly was a kind of a surprising year in many ways,” he said. “And that's because when you look at the supply and demand fundamentals for corn and soybeans and some of the other commodities, a lot changed, you know, from the beginning of ’22, to the end of ’22.”

Read more: Farmers' sentiments remain unchanged after mid terms

Langemeier theorized that sentiment increased because at the end of the year, producers have a better idea how their farm fared.

“If you look at the fundamentals, in terms of what they're concerned about, you know, crop prices, input costs, really not much has changed with regard to a lot of the fundamentals from November to December,” he said. “So, I really do point out that once you get to the end of the year, I think people take a closer look at their finances.”

The heightened price of crop and livestock helped to keep a year marred by expensive fuel and fertilizer from being harmful to agriculture.

Langemeier said it’s difficult to gauge where exactly prices will go in 2023, but for now it looks like higher prices are here to stay.

“When you look at the look at the costs, whether that be feed costs for animal production, or input costs for crop producers, they're very high,” he said. “And I just can't see a scenario where that's necessarily going to change or particularly change rapidly.”

The war in the Ukraine, climate change, and COVID in China all have a massive effect on input costs in agriculture. While those don’t look to change anytime soon, farmers are at least breathing a sort of sigh of relief for 2022.

Read more: Farm Workforce Modernization Act bill due in Senate any day now

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