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Can polls predict elections?

By Sara Molina

Posted November 4, 2022

polling

Polls help us understand other opinions, which help develop our own. (Depositphotos)

election-header-2022.jpg

Incorrect polling predictions, like those of the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, have led many Americans to lose trust in polls.

IU Associate Professor Dr. Jason Peifer said inaccurate polling predictions are caused by a number of things, but all polls are going to be somewhat inaccurate.
 
“Any poll is never going to give you a precise answer,” he said. “We always want to be thinking about polls in light of them being estimates.”
 
Election polling in particular has caused a mistrust in polling as a whole.

Read more: Polling Should Be More Accurate; Possible Legal Battles Ahead

“Election polls I think are especially tricky,” he said. “You’re trying to predict an outcome, and you just don’t know how many people are going to follow through on their intentions to vote.”
 
Getting a completely accurate answer is impossible but conducting election polling brings us relatively close. Peifer said it is important to remember that we do not have a better tool for getting these opinions.
 
“It's challenging, but it’s important to understand the perspectives of others,” he said. “That prompts us to think about our own views and opinions about things.”
 
He said polling is useful in many ways, but they can be problematic when citizens think of it as an exact science.
 
Peifer said the biggest red flag is when the poll does not provide a margin of error. Other good ways to find the best polls include:

  • Checking if it is from a reputable pollster or news organization
  • Checking if it is sponsored and by whom
  • Gauging how transparent the poll is with how the data was collected

Visit FiveThirtyEight's website to see reputable election polls. 

Read Next

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