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Ball State economist says Trump tariffs make Indiana ‘vulnerable’ as manufacturing state

By Thomas Ouellette, IPR News

Posted January 17, 2025

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Michael Hicks (left) gives a yearly outlook for the national and state economy. (Thomas Ouellette/IPR)

Ball State University’s economist says tariff threats by incoming President Trump make Indiana, as a manufacturing state, uniquely vulnerable. As IPR’s Thomas Ouellette reports, he says a clear picture of Indiana’s economy won’t be visible until after the first few weeks of Trump’s second presidential term.

Michael Hicks leads the Center for Business and Economic Research at Ball State. He says the biggest concern for Indiana this year is the inconsistent tariffs proposed by Donald Trump.

“So, he said he may raise tariffs 10 percent, maybe 20 percent, maybe 60 percent on China,” he said. “He may phase them in two percent to five percent a month for five or six months. And so those comments provide really high uncertainty about what his intentions are.”

Multiple high-end items like components for RVs and cars are manufactured in the state and often rely on imported parts.

Hicks says no matter how big or small the potential tariff may be, it will almost always be met by retaliatory tariffs. And the state’s high exports of soybeans, corn, and pork could also be targeted.

Hicks predicts a potential 20 percent tariff on US goods would drop the nation’s GDP – the comprehensive measure of the US economy – by more than $200 billion.

In another points of his 2025 forecast, Hicks says job market projections show the creation of 37,000 jobs over the coming year. That’s a significant decrease from the 49,000 jobs created last year. Hicks attributes the change to investments in automation, a tight labor market, and the increasing average wage premium for uneducated workers.

Additionally job market projections show the creation of 37 thousand jobs over the coming year, a significant decrease from the 49 thousand created last year. Hicks attributes this change to investments in automation, a tighter labor market and the average wage premium for uneducated workers increasing.

Thomas Ouellette is our reporter and producer. Contact him at thomas.ouellette@bsu.edu