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Economists: 2015 Economy Will Be Strongest Since Recession

By Indiana Public Media News Staff

Posted November 6, 2014

Updated - Nov. 6, 3:46 p.m.

Indiana University Kelley School economists predict 2015 will be the strongest year for the U.S. economy since the 2009 recession.

According to estimates presented today by the school's Business Outlook Panel, both state and national economies will continue their slow and steady growth, thanks to a strong housing sector and increased government and consumer spending.

Panel member Bill Witte described the current mood as one of "apprehensive optimism."

For once, the economy seems to be cooperating, but outside factors could hinder growth.

"Lots of the rest of the world's economy is deteriorating," he says. "Europe is maybe headed into a recession, China is clearly slowly down, and that could have a negative effect on our exports, and exports are an important component of the U.S. economy."

Witte cites the growing conflict in the Middle East as well as the Ebola epidemic in West Africa as other factors that might shade U.S. GDP growth.

"Internationally, there are just a lot of spots where the geopolitical situation is really bad" he says.

Economist Tim Slaper predicts smaller growth for Indiana, whose growth rate has lagged a small bit behind the national average since 2010, when it exploded at twice as fast as the nation's as a whole due to a surge in manufacturing.

"It was a manufacturing recovery," he explains. "But after that, what became more important is the growth of other services and construction. But we haven't grown those industries fast as other states have."

The good news for Indiana: the panel says the state can hope for a return to peak employment in the coming year.

They hope to see unemployment to fall below 5.25 percent - the lowest since May 2008.

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