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Analysis: Donnelly's Senate Seat One Of Most Likely To Flip

Several key positions in state and federal government are up for re-election in 2018, and those races are already heating up.

Brandon Smith is a statewide government and politics reporter for Indiana Public Broadcasting. He joined Joe Hren on the set of Indiana Newsdesk this week to gives us the rundown on Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly's bid for re-election, a race many political analysts say is one of the most likely to flip parties next year.

Hren: What has Donnelly been focusing on during his tour?

Smith: Donnelly's focus on the tour has been the same as his focus during his term in the Senate: veterans issues, outsourcing, workforce development, and the state's opioid epidemic.

He's continued pitching himself as a moderate, bipartisan lawmaker willing to work with both sides of the aisle - and not leaning too far in any one direction.

What are we hearing from the six Republican candidates? 

The Republican candidates mostly have the same message. First, that Joe Donnelly sides with far-left members of the Senate and isn't as moderate or bipartisan as he claims and, therefore, doesn't represent Hoosiers.

The major GOP candidates have also tried to link themselves as much as possible to Donald Trump, arguing they're the best choice to advance the Trump-Pence agenda. And they each are trying to paint themselves as outsiders trying to bring down the establishment or the elite.

How competitive will this Senate race be?

It's one of the most competitive in the country. It's rated by several groups as one of the most likely to flip from one party to another - meaning both Democrats and Republicans will be focusing on Indiana, and spending a lot of money here.

Outside groups spent more than $40 million on the 2016 Senate campaign in Indiana. That number could go up in 2018.

Rep. Luke Messer and Rep. Todd Rokita are running for Senate. What's going to happen with their seats in the House?

It creates potentially significant GOP primary battles in both seats, because both districts are considered safe for Republicans.

So far it's Messer's seat that's garnering a little more interest - a state Senator and local Muncie businessman are both declared, with other state lawmakers and Vice President Pence's brother Greg expressing interest.

In Rokita's district, it looks like Department of Workforce Development Commissioner Steve Braun, who's just announced he's leaving that job, will be the favorite at this point if and when he joins the primary.

Another race with a lot of interest is the race for the 9th district seat. What are we seeing there?

An unusual amount of opposite party challenges already announced.

Republican Trey Hollingsworth won that seat in somewhat controversial fashion in 2016 considering he'd only moved to Indiana shortly before running. That's led a host of Democratic candidates to already announce their interest in challenging Hollingsworth next fall.

That said, it's a district that's been leaning more Republican the last few cycles.

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