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IUPUI Experts: Program Predicts How Long A Home Will Take To Sell

Researchers from Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis have developed a program to predict how long a home will be on the market.

Buying or selling a house is one of the important decisions in life and it can be quite a nerve-stretching process: How long will it take until the future buyer gets in touch with you? Will my house be a slow seller? And from the buyer's view: When is the right moment for a purchase offer?

Associate Professor of Computer Science Mohammad Hasan and his colleagues went to the websites that home buyers and sellers visit and identified a weak point.

"We looked at trulia.com, zillow.com, redfin.com," Hasan says. "All of them had very nice features in terms of searchability. But one of the things they had not provided was the probability of that time frame that it might take for the house to sell."

"It gives you a time-frame for the selling and it especially shows you how the features of the house affect the probability of the selling over time."

IUPUI researchers looked at three months' data on more than 7,000 houses in five central Indiana cities and towns. The data included the dates of the initial listing and the sale.

Hasan says the result is a model that predicts how long a house will take to sell.

"It gives you a time-frame for the selling and it especially shows you how the features of the house affect the probability of the selling over time," he says. "You upload the features of the house, then the model will give you a probability over different times."

Certain features play a more important role in catching the interest of potential buyers, like a fireplace, parking and number of bathrooms.

The model accounts for price, location and size but also for the numbers of bedrooms, bathrooms and local crime rates. Based on these parameters, the program can recommend the seller or agent make a change to make the house more likely to sell, like remodeling or reducing the price.

The computer model is based on methodology used in a medical context, originating in so-called "survival analysis," which estimates the probability that a patient with a severe disease will live for a certain time frame.

The scientists hope that real estate websites will implement their model soon. Hasan says one website has already signaled he is open to sharing data for a new collaboration.

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