What will the turnout be for next week‘s election? IUPUI political analyst Brian Vargus says the normal rule of thumb for turnout in a mid-year election is 30% below the previous presidential election.
The turnout in the 2008 election was 58%, but Vargus says it was unusually high. He expects it to be in the high 20% to low 30% range. Vargus says the state‘s senate race could get more voters to the polls though.
“I actually think the Senate race may affect it a little bit,” says Vargus. “In many respects, the Senate race has been a little lackluster. There are people from both parties who don’t like their party’s choice.”
Vargus says local races often don‘t get people to fill out ballots. He says they tend to vote from the top of the ballot and work their way down.
“Generally,” Vargus says, “people go from the top down. In many of those local races farther down the ballot, they are what we call, ‘low information races’. People don’t really know what the office is or what it does.”
In the 2006 midterm elections, voter turnout in Indiana was 35%.