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IU Professor Explains The Statistics Of Bracketology

One IU professor says being a top seed does little to ensure success in the NCAA basketball tournament when the numbers are crunched.

Basketball

Photo: Kody Gilliland/WFIU News

The Hoosiers playing against Ohio State earlier this month.

Since the NCAA tournament bracket was announced Sunday, IU Kelley School of Business professor Wayne Winston has analyzed the brackets using statistical methods in an attempt to determine which team might have the best chance to win.

Winston says he starts by looking at the team’s body of work so far through the season.

“I just look at the scores of all the games how the teams have played against each other,” he says.

From that he then pits each team against one another in a simulation which plays the games 10,000 times to determine the likelihood they will win each game.

From that Winston has pinpointed three teams who he likes to win the tournament.

“Louisville’s got a 21-percent chance and Florida and Indiana have about a 12-percent chance,” he says.

Winston says that the tournament is still wildly unpredictable with no top-seeded team having better than a 50-percent chance of making the Final Four.

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